The war around Iran is not just a story about oil: supply disruptions can change who profits from energy and who pays more for fuel and goods. If you're curious about how the conflict resonates far beyond the region, here’s a brief overview of who it may benefit and who it creates problems for.
Who may win
Norway and Canada may gain more buyers if countries seek alternatives to supplies from the Middle East. However, ramping up production quickly is not always easy, so the mere possibility of profit does not mean they can fully capitalize on the situation.
The most notable potential beneficiary is Russia: amid the U.S. deficit, restrictions have been eased to facilitate oil supplies, and its sales to India have increased. It is estimated that this could bring additional revenues to Moscow; however, this does not make the United States an overall winner of the conflict.
Who faces losses
The U.S. may profit from higher oil prices, but their companies also suffer losses due to disruptions in the region, and shale oil producers are unable to quickly increase production. For Britain and Europe, the risk is more expensive energy and pressure on economic growth.
Asian countries are particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz: a significant portion of their oil comes from the Middle East. China has reserves for several months of consumption and has reportedly increased purchases of Iranian oil, which partially mitigates the risk but does not eliminate it.
So this is more a story about uneven consequences than about obvious winners: some suppliers may profit, while consumers and countries dependent on energy imports may feel the pinch. Would you be interested in attending such a discussion or lecture on how the war affects prices and everyday life?